Shipping decarbonization scenarios

The present study throws light on distinct possible futures decarbonization scenarios for international shipping. The utility of these scenarios is to offer simplified yet pertinent pictures of distinct possible futures, highlight their structural distinctions, and serve as a test ground for ship technology investments.The applied strategic scenario methodology consists in exploiting future uncertaintiesand influence factors for decarbonization of shipping, identifyingmain axes of alternative developments, building a two-dimensional matrix of structurally different scenarios, and back-casting their implications for technological, regulatory, and sectoral decisions. The two main axes selected correspond to significant innovation paths with opposite directions and represent a crossroad in today's strategic decision making for ship owners: First, an energy efficiency reduction axe with focus on fuel consumption reduction through ship design and propulsion efficiency; Second, a carbon efficiency axe with focus on fuel and power systems reducing the carbon and GHG content of the consumed fuels. The resulting four scenarios in which the required 2050 shipping decarbonization is attained, are: Hydrogen & Ammonia; The Easy-way; Wind-ship; Efficient-transition.